Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
