🔗 Share this article An Forecasting Platform User Profited $436,000 on Wagers Predicting Maduro's Downfall. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A trader earned a substantial sum from wagers on the downfall of the Venezuelan leader shortly prior to it was made public, raising questions about potential gains made from confidential information of the US operation. Market Movement in Forecasts Wagers on Polymarket, a crypto-powered platform, that the leader would be no longer in control by the end of January increased in the time leading up to former President Trump stated on the weekend that Maduro had been taken into custody. A particular user, which registered on the site in December and took four positions, all on the Venezuelan situation, earned over $436K from a starting bet of $32.5K. The identity is unknown. The user had only a cryptographic address for identification. Market Signals Before Announcement Trading information shows that traders put the odds of the president's removal at just 6.5% in the late afternoon of the prior Friday. Yet the odds had climbed to over 10% by the end of the day and surged in the morning of Saturday, pointing to a sudden change in market sentiment immediately prior to the public announcement was made. "This particular bet has all the hallmarks of a bet based on inside information," commented a financial reform advocate. A handful of other platform users also profited large payouts from similar wagers. Political Attention Grows Some lawmakers are starting to take note. A new rule presented on Monday would prevent public officials from placing bets on prediction markets if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a market. Industry Context Forecasting platforms have become increasingly popular in recent years, with participants able to wager on everything from sports to current affairs. Prediction markets encountered regulatory challenges under the last presidential term. Yet it has experienced less resistance during the current presidency. Using confidential knowledge is illegal in the securities markets, but there are less oversight in the event betting space. A spokesperson for another major platform said their site "has clear rules against such activities of any form."