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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward formula. It commonly functions as a type of apology. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who engineered the biggest resurgence wins the prize. However, it sparks an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or simply the most shocking upset.

Yet this year's race is distinctly different. The list of nominees is remarkably deep. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with reigning division winners falling away and recent underperformers improving collectively. In an typical season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in this chaotic and fun season, he's facing five other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the ideal vote should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to create magic from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the immense pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a typical season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But this isn't a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained success. But Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the leadership aspects, which was not a guarantee after his initial public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching blend of youth and experience, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. But he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an initial strong start, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A mid-year setback caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still